Table 5. Summary of habitat response† relative to simulated range of natural variation (SRNV) for modeled variables at year 0 (CURRENT) and at year 100 (NOSPATIAL, ALLGUIDES, and NATURAL).


Species Scenario‡  ROC
CURRENT NOSPATIAL ALLGUIDES NATURAL
Alder Flycatcher 1 1 -0.5 1 0.770
Black-and-white Warbler -1 -0.5 1 -0.5 0.678
Bay-breasted Warbler -1 -1 -1 -1 0.725
Blackburnian Warbler -0.5 1 -0.5 1 0.668
Brown Creeper -0.5 -1 -1 -1 0.728
Common Yellowthroat -1 -1 -1 -1 0.833
Chestnut-sided Warbler -0.5 1 -0.5 1 0.757
Least Flycatcher 1 1 1 1 0.687
Ovenbird 1 -1 -1 -1 0.796
Red-breasted Nuthatch 1 -1 -1 -1 0.708
Red-eyed Vireo -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 0.803
Winter Wren 1 1 1 1 0.809
White-throated Sparrow 1 1 -0.5 1 0.749
Sum 1 0 -4.5 0
Weighted Sum§ 0.80 -0.09 -3.49 -0.09  

†. Response -.05 indicates an increase in the overall level of the variable, relative to SRNV, and -1 represents a decrease. 1 indicates the variable is maintained within the bounds of SRNV.
‡. Current state of the forest (CURRENT), no spatial guidelines (NOSPATIAL), featured values guidelines (ALLGUIDES), and natural composition targets (NATURAL).
§. Sum weighted by ROC model accuracy.